CRE lending surges 90% in Q1

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Rust Belt and Southern Tertiary Markets Lead Rent Growth 

• Allentown, PA led year-over-year rent growth at 3.8%, followed closely by Columbia, SC and Lexington, KY at 3.7%. In contrast, Austin, TX saw the biggest drop at -5.8%, with other declines in Pensacola, Cape Coral, and Denver.

• Markerr projects future rent growth will remain strong in the Rust Belt, with Rochester, NY expected to grow 5.3% and Syracuse, NY at 5%. Pennsylvania cities like Youngstown, Scranton, and Allentown are also forecasted to see growth near 5%.

• Single-family rents are growing fastest in cities like Cleveland, Toledo, Youngstown, and Syracuse. Florida and Texas metros like Cape Coral, Sarasota, and Austin are at the bottom due to falling home prices and rising insurance costs.

Foreclosures are up 14% in the past year, ATTOM says link

• Foreclosure filings hit 36,033 in April, a 13.9% jump year over year, with lenders starting foreclosures on over 25,000 homes. Texas led with 3,280 starts, followed by Florida, California, Illinois, and Ohio.

• Completed foreclosures (REOs) were up 23.3% compared to last year, despite a slight dip from March. Cities like Chicago, Atlanta, and New York saw the highest REO totals.

• Southern states showed the highest foreclosure rates, led by South Carolina (1 in 2,311 homes). Warner Robins, GA, and Killeen-Temple, TX, had the highest metro-level rates, while Cleveland led major metros.

Here's exactly how unaffordable today's housing market is — and where it's getting worse link

• Middle-income buyers earning $75,000–$100,000 could afford just 21.2% of listings in March 2025, down from 48.8% in 2019. To balance the market, 416,000 more listings under $255,000 are needed.

• Buyers earning $50,000 can only afford 8.7% of homes, while those making $250,000 or more can afford over 80%. The lower-end market remains critically undersupplied despite growing demand.

• Cities like Akron, St. Louis, and Pittsburgh are balanced, while Austin, San Francisco, and Denver are improving. But markets like Los Angeles, San Diego, and New York City are worsening due to high costs, zoning limits, and underbuilding.

CRE lending surges 90% y-o-y in Q1 link

• Commercial real estate lending jumped 90% year-over-year in Q1 2025, with CBRE’s Lending Momentum Index also rising 13% from Q4 2024. Banks led the surge, despite ongoing concerns about Treasury yield volatility and government policy changes.

• Average loan spreads tightened to 183 basis points, down 29 bps from a year ago. Multifamily spreads fell to 149 bps, the lowest since Q1 2022, mainly due to stronger agency financing.

• Borrowers are capitalizing on tighter spreads to refinance early and fund new acquisitions. Increased sales activity is helping reprice under-traded property types, creating fresh lending opportunities.

What do you call an iBuyer that isn’t iBuying houses? link

• Opendoor and Offerpad bought significantly fewer homes in 2024—just 14,684 and a few hundred respectively—compared to nearly 35,000 by Opendoor alone in 2022. With stocks hovering around $1 and volume shrinking, their business model is struggling to survive.

• The iBuying model needs steady home prices and high transaction volume to work, but current market volatility and high mortgage rates have made that almost impossible. Offerpad and Opendoor are slashing staff and spending cautiously just to stay afloat.

• Big players like Zillow and Redfin have already exited the space after heavy losses, with Zillow losing $928 million in a single quarter. Now Opendoor and Offerpad are left alone, with few paths to scale or merge due to lack of viable partners.

Stand

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Vidit

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