Fed officials signal support for a December rate cut as odds jump to 85%

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⚡ Snapshot: The 7/6 SOFR ARM saw the biggest weekly slide (-0.22%), while daily movements were mostly flat, signaling a pause after several sessions of steady declines.

AI adoption plateaus across US firms link

• Census and Ramp data show AI adoption growth flattening in 2025, with large firms above 12 percent and smaller firms clustered near 6 to 8 percent.

• The slowdown is visible across all company sizes, suggesting the early surge of adoption is giving way to steadier incremental gains rather than rapid expansion.

My take: A plateau in adoption means productivity gains from AI may cool a bit from the early spike, thus softening expectations for a big near-term boost to economic growth.

Fed officials signal support for a December rate cut as odds jump to 85% link

• Public comments from key Fed leaders pushed market expectations for a December quarter-point cut from 50% to about 85%, pulling the 10-year yield briefly under 4%.

• Conflicting data complicates the case, with consumer confidence falling to 88.7 and wholesale inflation holding at 2.7% while September jobs came in stronger than expected.

My take: The Fed looks tilted toward easing, but the data is messy. Mortgage rates may drift lower, though markets are reacting to signals more than fundamentals.

Lenders push tech upgrades to make 7-day refis possible link

• Lenders are speeding up refis by using tech-enabled AMCs that offer real-time digital scheduling, borrower self-booking, and tighter oversight of appraiser panels to cut delays and reduce errors.

• Smart platforms flag valuation issues early and match appraisers by performance, geography, and availability, lowering risk while improving turn times and reducing rate-lock extensions.

My take: Faster, tech-driven appraisals are becoming a clear competitive edge. Investors should expect lenders with strong AMC partnerships to pull ahead on refi volume.

Hybrid habits keep Friday offices empty link

• Only 12.4% of weekday office visits occur on Fridays, while Tuesday to Thursday capture nearly 70% of traffic.

• Office traffic is still well below pre Covid levels, but October visits rose 4.7% year over year, led by Miami, New York and San Francisco.

My take: For office owners, this confirms a midweek centric pattern, so leasing, amenities and programming should focus on Tuesday to Thursday peaks.

Bond market signals look mispriced as long-end yields stay too low link

• The 10-year SOFR sits only 30 basis points above the 2-year, far below the long-run 65–110 basis point range, signaling an unusually flat curve despite inflation and fiscal pressures.

• With CPI near 3% and the 10-year term premium effectively at zero, analysts estimate the long end is undervalued by 40–60 basis points relative to structural fundamentals.

My take: The long end looks out of sync with the inflation and debt math. Investors should watch for a catch-up move that steepens the curve.

Dallas retail’s Q3 plot twist, one metric halves, another triples link

• Dallas retail investment sales fell sharply in Q3 to $457.5 million, roughly half of Q2, even as fundamentals held steady with a 4.9% availability rate and only a slight rent dip to $21.65 per sf.

• Demand strengthened, with net absorption jumping to +132,000 sf, more than triple Q2, while new deliveries eased to 403,000 sf, showing a market where capital pulled back but occupancy and leasing stayed resilient.

Tool of the day: Locate

AI based analytics platform for evaluating retail store site selection and feasibility

AI Cuts EMD Funding to 48 Hours for CRE Deals link

WRE News reports that Duckfund launched an AI-driven platform that funds earnest money deposits in as little as 48 hours. The system automates underwriting and document checks, helping investors secure deposits ranging from $25,000 to $20 million. With $1.5 billion deals completed, the tool delivers a speed edge in a competitive market.

AI Pilots Surge, Real Results Still Only 5 Percent link

JLL reports that 92 percent of occupiers are now piloting AI in buildings, up from less than 5 percent three years ago. But only 5 percent say they are hitting most of their goals, held back by weak data and poor integration. Investors should note that adoption is high, but impact is still low until firms fix basic systems.

Mitsubishi Plans $15B AI Data Center Push in the US link

W.Media reports that Mitsubishi will build 14 US data center campuses by 2030, a $15 billion bet on AI and cloud demand. The plan adds 2.8 GW of capacity, with early sites landing in Virginia, Georgia, and Illinois. The move shows how rising AI workloads are pulling global real estate giants into US digital infrastructure.

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