First-time homebuyer share hits record low, Private reverse mortgage loans

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⚡ Snapshot: The 30 Yr. Fixed dropped the most today (-0.08%), marking a mild downward trend across most loan types, with only Jumbo and SOFR ARM holding steady.

Private construction spending on data centers rising despite Fed rate hikes link

• According to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Sløk, private construction spending on Office construction plunged after 2022 rate hikes, while data center investment nearly doubled to around $45B.

• The divergence shows monetary policy’s limits—AI-linked capex is fueled less by debt and more by equity gains from the “Magnificent Seven,” insulating it from rate pressure.

• Outside of AI, corporate capex has flatlined, signaling that broader financial conditions, not the Fed funds rate alone, are driving where capital flows.

My take: For investors, this signals AI infrastructure as the new safe haven for growth capital. Expect more REIT and private equity inflows into data centers even if rates stay higher for longer.

First-time homebuyer share hits record low, median age climbs to 40 link

• First-time buyers made up just 21% of U.S. home purchases this year, down from 40% before 2008. High prices, 6–6.7% mortgage rates, and low inventory have pushed the median first-time buyer age to a record 40.

• Repeat buyers are dominating the market, with a median age of 62 and median down payments of 23%. All-cash deals now account for 30% of purchases, an all-time high.

• The share of buyers with children dropped to 24%, the lowest on record, while 14% purchased multigenerational homes, often to support aging parents or cut costs.

My take: The housing market is aging fast. Wealthy, older buyers are keeping prices high while an entire generation of first-time buyers gets locked out.

Private reverse mortgage loans hit $650M(Q3) link

• Proprietary reverse mortgage originations reached $650M in Q3 2025, bringing year-to-date volume to $1.8B, or 38% of the total reverse market. A decade ago, these loans made up virtually zero market share.

• Federally insured HECM loans still dominate at $3B YTD, but endorsements have halted during the government shutdown, pushing lenders toward private alternatives.

• HECM demand has fallen 69% since 2022, yet secondary issuance remains active, with $491M in HMBS pools issued in October and Finance of America leading at $164M.

My take: The private market is filling a vacuum Washington left behind. Expect proprietary reverse products to keep growing as FHA bottlenecks and aging homeowners look for equity release options.

Office and retail deals rebound as hotels sink 30% link

• CRE deal volume is up just 5% this year, but big-ticket transactions are driving the action. Sales over $100M rose 35% YoY, while smaller deals stayed flat.

• Hotel deal values dropped 30% as business and international travel cooled, leaving lenders and investors avoiding the sector.

• Office and open-air retail showed rare momentum, with Apple spending $365M on offices in Sunnyvale and nearly $500M flowing into strip centers from Nuveen, Tanger, and others.

My take: The CRE slowdown is selective. Capital is fleeing hotels but quietly returning to discounted office campuses and essential retail.

Nearly half of Phoenix listings cut prices, but median holds at $522K link

• 48.99% of active listings in Phoenix–Mesa–Glendale have reduced prices, yet the median list price remains $522K, 20% above the national median of $435K.

• Buyer demand remains steady, with 1,418 homes absorbed versus 1,158 new listings, keeping inventory tight at 2.8 months—just below the national 2.9-month average.

• Homes spend a median of 63 days on market, faster than both Arizona’s 70 days and the national 77, indicating active buyers even amid widespread price adjustments.

Tool of the day: Yardi Virtuoso

Automate property operations, streamline workflows, and deliver real-time operational intelligence.

AI Is Rewriting How Properties Are Valued and Cities Are Built link

Amit Kumar writes that AI is now driving everything from instant valuations and predictive pricing to smart city planning and energy-efficient buildings. Platforms like Zillow and NoBroker are using live data to refine accuracy, while AI-powered simulations are reshaping how cities manage traffic, energy, and land use.

CREModels Launches “Lighthouse” for Real-Time Portfolio Analysis link

CREModels has unveiled Lighthouse, a new GL-based analytics module for its CRESuite platform that lets investors track real-time asset and portfolio performance directly from accounting data. The tool auto-generates actual-vs-budget reports, flags anomalies down to invoices, and aligns cash flows with pro formas — replacing manual reporting with AI-powered insights.

Wall Street: AI Stock Boom Nearing a “Winners vs. Losers” Split link

Business Insider’s Joe Ciolli reports that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley execs see 2026 bringing sharp dispersion in AI stocks, with only firms holding strong balance sheets and real cash flows likely to endure. Meta’s selloff, contrasted with Microsoft’s resilience, signals this shakeout.

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