Inflation rising, CRE lending hits 7-year high

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⚡ Snapshot: The 30 Yr. FHA and 30 Yr. VA saw the largest daily declines (-0.06%), as mortgage rates broadly trended lower across nearly all loan types.

Inflation on the rise: More than half of CPI items above 3% link

• About 55% of goods and services in the CPI basket are seeing price growth above 3% annualized, showing inflation remains broad-based despite headline cooling.

• This is the second major inflation wave since 2021, with price pressures reaccelerating across essentials like housing, insurance, and healthcare.

• The data highlights why the Fed is likely to hold off on December rate cuts, as inflation persistence remains stronger than policymakers expected.

My take: Inflation is proving sticky under the surface. Even if headline numbers ease, the breadth of price increases makes it hard for the Fed to pivot quickly.

CRE lending momentum hits 7-year high, banks and alt lenders drive rebound link

• CBRE’s Lending Momentum Index climbed to 1.04 in Q3 2025, its highest level since 2018, powered by a 36% jump in permanent loan originations and tighter spreads that reopened deal pipelines.

• Alternative lenders captured 37% of non-agency closings, up from 34% a year earlier, while bank participation surged to 31% from 18%. Life companies pulled back sharply to just 16% of volume.

• Multifamily and industrial led deal flow at $42B and $24B respectively, but office and retail posted the biggest rebounds, up 35% and 29% year-over-year.

My take: Lending appetite is back, but with a reshuffled lender mix. Banks and debt funds are stepping up where life companies are retreating, signaling a more opportunistic credit cycle ahead.

White House’s 50-year mortgage will lead to higher lifetime costs link

• A 50-year mortgage would lower monthly payments but sharply increase total interest, with AP estimates showing buyers could pay about $389,000 more over the life of a median-priced loan.

• The product faces major legal barriers, since Qualified Mortgage rules cap terms at 30 years and Fannie and Freddie cannot currently purchase 40- or 50-year loans without regulatory changes.

• Analysts caution that longer terms could inflate demand and push prices higher unless supply expands, while also slowing equity buildup and raising rates if offered as non-QM loans.

My take: The affordability boost from a 50-year term looks modest compared to the long-term cost and regulatory friction involved. Investors and agents should watch the policy track, but real relief will still depend more on supply growth than new loan structures.

Purchase mortgage demand jumps 6% to highest level since September link

• Purchase applications rose 6% last week and are now 31% higher than a year ago, marking the strongest early-November pace since 2022 even as 30-year mortgage rates inched up to 6.34%.

• Buyers are responding to more inventory and slower price growth, with conventional, FHA and VA purchase demand all increasing, according to MBA data.

• Refinance applications dipped 3% week-over-week but remain 147% above last year thanks to lower rates, though average refi loan size hit a one-month low as rate-sensitive borrowers tap smaller balances.

My take: Purchase demand holding up against rising rates reinforces how much inventory and pricing shifts are driving activity. Investors should watch whether this momentum continues once seasonal slowdown and policy uncertainty fully set in.

Multifamily rents slip for third month as labor market softens, demand cools link

• Advertised multifamily rents fell $4 to $1,743 in October, marking the third straight monthly decline, while year-over-year rent growth held at just 0.5%.

• Demand weakened sharply as only 32% of expected new jobs materialized in September and layoffs hit major employers, with absorption dropping in Detroit, the Twin Cities, Indianapolis, Orlando, Nashville and Miami.

• Despite softer fundamentals, slower construction since 2023 is helping high-supply Sun Belt and Western markets work through lease-ups, reducing the risk of oversupply in the near term.

My take: Labor-driven demand pressure is now showing up in rents, but the drop in new starts over the past two years should limit deeper corrections. Investors should track absorption closely in metros with both high exposure to layoffs and significant new supply.

Net-lease investment climbs 24% over the past year as office gains share link

• Net-lease investment hit $48.1B for the year ending Q3 2025, up 24% year-over-year, even as quarterly volume slipped to $10.6B, down 4% from Q2.

• Industrial remained the largest category at $5.6B, though its share of net-lease volume fell to 53%, while office jumped to 24% of activity with a 29% year-over-year increase.

• Cap-rate spreads over the 10-year Treasury compressed to 265 bps as yields ended Q3 at 4.3%, down 10 bps quarter-over-quarter but still 31 bps higher than last year.

My take: The sector rotation inside net-lease is clear, with office slowly regaining investor attention while industrial moderates. Tighter spreads suggest pricing stability is improving, but not evenly across property types.

Minnesota’s behavioral health real estate boom hits a regulatory speed check link

• Minnesota DHS has paused payments to select Medicaid-funded behavioral health and autism therapy providers as it reviews billing and compliance, introducing uncertainty in a segment that has driven much of the state’s recent medical office demand.

• Rapid expansion over the past three years, often backed by private equity, has tightened vacancy and repurposed older medical office buildings, especially in Twin Cities suburbs.

• Providers reliant on government reimbursement may face short-term pressure, potentially affecting rent stability or turnover, while stronger, well-capitalized operators are expected to consolidate market share.

Tool of the day: Kolena AI

AI-powered platform that automates lease abstraction, acquisition due diligence, compliance and post-close management

CRE Leaders Scale Back AI Expectations for 2026 link

Commercial Property Executive reports that Deloitte’s 2026 CRE Outlook shows a sharp reset in how the industry views AI. Transformational AI adopters dropped from 12 percent to 1 percent, while firms citing data and implementation challenges nearly doubled to 27 percent.

Agentic AI Could Transform Real Estate, If Data Silos Don’t Kill It link

HousingWire’s Tomas Gorny highlights how agentic AI systems that proactively make decisions and optimize workflows could revolutionize valuation, research, and client management in real estate. But fragmented data and proprietary listing silos are blocking progress. Without unified, accessible data across brokers and customer systems, the next wave of AI tools risks being powerful yet blind.

Courts Target Data Gatekeeping as Antitrust Risk for Real Estate Tech link

Fenwick reports that a federal court allowed Celonis’ case against SAP to proceed, signaling that restricting third-party access to customer data may qualify as monopolistic behavior. A related CREXi v. CoStar case shows judges are increasingly willing to treat data barriers as exclusionary conduct, raising new risks for real estate platforms that rely on proprietary ecosystems.

AI Pushes PropTech Into Its 3D Renovation Era link

Medium highlights how Allreno is using AI, digital twins, and smartphone-based 3D mapping to compress renovation planning from months to minutes. The platform turns real rooms into editable 3D models, letting users redesign spaces instantly while linking directly to materials and manufacturing. With renovation representing an $800B market, AI-driven design is emerging as PropTech’s next major growth wave.

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An Earthship 

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