Inflation set to climb faster

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Dollar drops 10%—inflation set to climb faster link

• A 10% drop in the U.S. dollar is expected to push inflation up by 0.3 percentage points. A 20% drop could have an even stronger effect, compounding existing inflation pressures.

• Other inflation drivers—like higher oil prices, tariffs, and immigration curbs—are already heating up costs, and this currency depreciation adds more fuel.

• The Federal Reserve, market consensus, and Apollo’s economists all expect inflation to keep rising in the coming months, signaling potential rate adjustments or policy shifts.

Office Real Estate Crashes—$9B in Distressed Loans Signal Buyer Opportunity link

• Trepp identified 279 U.S. office loans worth $9.02 billion with occupancy rates at or below 60%, suggesting a surge in distressed asset sales. These properties are struggling to refinance due to weak income, deferred maintenance, and outdated infrastructure.

• Office buildings built before 1950 have lost 55% of their value since origination, while even those built after 2001 are down 48%. This signals deep, market-wide depreciation regardless of asset age.

• Nearly 29% of Q1 2025 CMBS issuance was tied to office, almost all of it in Class A properties—highlighting a growing gap between trophy assets and everything else. Investors focusing on lower-tier buildings may find heavily discounted buys as loans mature and DSCRs fall below 1.0.

Luxury market splits in two—ultra-rich still buying, others pull back link

• Over half of Coldwell Banker luxury agents saw more all-cash offers in 2025, with just 3.9% reporting a drop. Ultra-high-net-worth buyers (worth $30M+) are actively purchasing to avoid steep borrowing costs.

• Luxury single-family home sales dipped 4.7% year-over-year in May 2025, while attached luxury properties dropped a steep 21.1%, marking a sudden slowdown tied to recent stock market volatility.

• Even in a high-rate environment, 67% of agents say wealthy clients are maintaining or increasing real estate exposure. Only 11.3% say they’re shifting toward stocks or other assets.

Half a Million Apartment Units Delayed link

• Over 500,000 apartment units have been delayed nationwide since 2018, with Los Angeles alone accounting for 70,000 stalled units—over half its expected deliveries. Other major delays were seen in New York, Seattle, and Phoenix.

• Labor disruptions are now a growing threat to development, compounding pressures from tariffs, rising insurance costs, and material expenses. Immigrant workers make up 37–41% of construction labor in states like CA, TX, FL, and NY, making workforce availability a critical risk.

• With construction already slowing, these compounding issues are expected to further choke the housing pipeline. This likely means higher rents and reduced inventory in the most supply-constrained markets.

Where Americans Are Moving To and From link

• Only 3.1% of U.S. homeowners moved in 2024—the lowest rate ever recorded—marking a 24% drop from pre-pandemic migration. In total, just 10.9 million households moved across state lines last year.

• Florida's net in-migration rate fell from a pandemic peak of 14.2% in 2022 to just 2.8% in 2024, due to rising housing prices, insurance costs, and a tighter job market. Texas mirrored this trend with a drop to 2.8% as well.

• While Sun Belt states like Tennessee and North Carolina saw migration slow by 20% and 17% respectively, outbound migration from places like California and New York also dropped by about 30% compared to 2023.

U.S. Housing Deficit Nears 5 Million—Millennials Hit Hardest link

• The U.S. housing shortage grew to 4.7 million homes in 2023, up by 159,000 from the previous year—even after adding 1.4 million new homes. Demand from 1.8 million newly formed households continues to outpace supply.

• Millennials make up 38% of families forced to live with non-relatives due to the shortage. That’s more than any other age group, highlighting a key generational squeeze in the housing market.

• San Jose, San Diego, San Francisco, Boston, and Los Angeles had the worst housing deficits in 2023. In LA alone, over 450,000 families are doubling up, despite having just 114,000 vacant homes available.

Ohio’s Manufacturing Comeback Sparks Housing Boom link

• Cleveland and Toledo are now two of the hottest housing markets in the U.S., driven by a surge in manufacturing jobs. The shift comes as Ohio attracts companies making drones, semiconductors, and industrial goods.

• Once plagued by job loss and aging populations, Ohio is reversing the Rust Belt narrative without federal intervention. Private sector investment is fueling both employment and population growth.

• Local housing markets in Ohio are seeing renewed demand thanks to the region’s industrial revival. This has led to rising home values and tighter inventory in cities long seen as stagnant.

Keyway

Keyway streamlines complex commercial real estate transactions with an AI-driven platform that automates labor-intensive tasks — from extracting critical deal terms out of dense documents to instantly generating rental comps and pricing recommendations.

AI Is Quietly Rewriting Real Estate Investing—Green Buildings Could Win Big link

• AI is driving a surge in real estate tech, with the market growing from $222B in 2024 to $303B in 2025—an annual jump of 36%. It's being used for everything from rent forecasting to property valuation and energy modeling.

• Sustainable office buildings now command rent premiums of 6%–12%, while inefficient properties face value declines of 5%–15%. Green-certified assets are becoming financially safer bets under new global climate regulations.

• In cities like New York and London, low-carbon office supply is expected to fall short of demand by 65% and 35% respectively by 2030. AI tools help landlords prove sustainability performance, making properties more attractive to tenants and insurers.

How AI Is Revolutionizing Real Estate—and Why the Potential for Agents Is Limitless link

• Agents using AI effectively are saving up to two hours per day by automating tasks like document prep, marketing, and client follow-up—freeing them up to spend more time with buyers and sellers.

• Cotality’s tools now let agents scan a room with their phone and get room dimensions, a floor plan, and translated captions in under 10 minutes, helping listings go live faster and meet compliance and accessibility standards.

• AI is already baked into most tools agents use—like CRMs and MLS apps—but less than 3% of agents fully understand its potential after initial training, meaning many are missing out on big competitive advantages.

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1930s Spanish Revival

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Vidit

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