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In-Office Work Schedules Spiking

Plus, Sun Belt Areas See the Biggest Apartment Vacancy Increases and 7 more Real Estate Insights

Macro Trends

Life Expectancy in the U.S. link

  • In 1800, global life expectancy at birth was approximately 29 years. This low figure was due to limited medical knowledge and poor living conditions.

  • Since the 1920s, life expectancy has significantly improved, thanks to advancements in nutrition, healthcare, and sanitation. These developments have dramatically increased the average lifespan.

  • An interesting aspect of life expectancy is that it increases as people age. This trend highlights the impact of surviving early life risks and the benefits of modern healthcare in later years.

Real Estate Trends

One Of The Biggest 2-Day Drops in Rates in Decades link

  • Mortgage rates have experienced one of the largest 2-day declines in recent decades. This significant drop is unprecedented since the start of intraday record-keeping in 2007, with only a few similar instances in the past.

  • The current rate drop is part of a larger trend, with rates decreasing more in the past 45 days than any other period on record since 2007. This trend reflects a broader financial market shift, potentially indicating changes in inflation and Federal Reserve policies.

  • The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell nearly 0.30% yesterday and an additional 0.20% today. This brings the average rate to the mid-6% range for top-tier scenarios, marking a notable shift from recent highs.

In-Office Work Spiking link

  • A significant shift in work schedules is occurring, with 52% of companies now requiring employees to be in the office between one to four days a week. This marks a notable change from the remote work trend.

  • The trend reflects a balancing act between remote and in-office work, suggesting a hybrid model is becoming the norm in many industries. This shift impacts office space utilization and employee work-life balance.

  • The change in office attendance policies could have broader implications for commercial real estate, urban planning, and transportation. It indicates a move towards more flexible, yet structured, work environments.

Falling Mortgage Rates Breathe New Life Into Housing Market as Listings, Pending Sales and Price Growth Hit Highest Level in Roughly a Year link

  • November 2023 saw a surge in housing market activity, with new listings and pending home sales reaching their highest levels in about a year. This uptick is attributed to a decrease in mortgage rates, prompting buyers and sellers to act after a period of hesitation.

  • Despite the positive trends, the housing market faces challenges. Deals are falling through at record rates due to economic uncertainty, and some regions continue to experience price declines. This indicates a complex market environment where buyer and seller expectations are constantly adjusting.

  • Home prices in the U.S. recorded a significant increase, with the median sale price rising by 3.7% year-over-year to $408,732 in November 2023. This marks the largest jump since late 2022, signaling a potential normalization of price growth after the pandemic-induced fluctuations.

More Apartment Construction Heads to Low Rent Suburbs link

  • A significant shift in the apartment rental market shows low-rent suburbs leading in apartment construction, surpassing higher-rent areas for the first time in a decade. This change marks a new trend in housing development.

  • Rent growth in these low-rent suburbs is modestly higher than in more affluent areas. This trend is noteworthy for renters seeking affordability and indicates a shift in market dynamics.

  • Low-rent suburbs constitute about 58% of the total existing housing units over the past decade. This substantial proportion highlights the growing importance of these areas in the national housing landscape.

Sun Belt Areas See the Biggest Apartment Vacancy Increases link

  • The Sun Belt region is experiencing a significant rise in apartment vacancies, particularly in the luxury segment. This trend is attributed to overbuilding in these areas, leading to an oversupply of high-end apartments.

  • The increase in vacancy rates is a notable shift from the previous trend of high demand and low vacancies in the Sun Belt. This change reflects a market adjustment, impacting both the real estate market and potential renters.

  • The situation presents both challenges and opportunities. For renters, it could mean more options and potentially lower prices. For the real estate market, it's a call to recalibrate strategies and expectations in response to changing dynamics.

New Housing Units at the State Level: A Look at Data From the Last Decade link

  • From 2012 to 2022, the U.S. saw an 8.5% increase in housing units, totaling 11.3 million new units. This growth reflects the rising demand for housing, yet active listings remain limited, indicating a persistent housing shortage.

  • Texas, Florida, and California led in housing unit creation, adding over 4.7 million units combined in the past decade. In contrast, West Virginia was the only state with a decrease in housing units, highlighting regional disparities in housing development.

  • Percentage-wise, Utah, Texas, and Idaho experienced the most significant growth in housing units, each over 23%. This data underscores the varying pace of housing development across states, with some like California and New York seeing more modest increases of around 7-8%.

Something I found Interesting

The 3 best European countries to buy a vacation home link

  • France, Italy, and Spain are top choices for vacation homes due to their political stability, good governance, and easy mortgage market access. These countries offer attractive landscapes, rich cuisine, and vibrant cities, making them popular among overseas buyers.

  • The trend of spending more time in vacation homes post-pandemic has increased the appeal of regions like Provence, the Alps, Tuscany, and Lake Como. Buyers are now willing to travel further from airports for longer stays, seeking properties that offer a blend of natural beauty and cultural richness.

  • New regulations and incentives in these countries are shaping the vacation home market. France offers tax incentives for new builds, Italy attracts wealthy buyers with a flat tax program, and Spain's new digital nomad visa is expected to boost its appeal, particularly in areas like Madrid and Marbella.

Pro Member Only Content

The Nation’s Six Fastest-Growing Apartment Submarkets 

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  • Apartment construction in the U.S. is at a historic high, with Dallas, New York City, and Phoenix leading over 50,000 units each. In specific neighborhoods, six submarkets exceed 10,000 units under construction as of the third quarter of 2023, showcasing a significant construction boom.

  • New York's Brooklyn and Queens, along with Jersey City, are experiencing substantial growth. Brooklyn alone has nearly 20,000 units underway, a 4% increase in its existing inventory of 482,000 units. Queens and Jersey City are also seeing similar expansions, with 10,700 and 12,000 units under construction, respectively.

  • Phoenix's Avondale/Goodyear/West Glendale submarket is undergoing a dramatic transformation, with over 13,500 units under construction. This represents a nearly 58% increase in the current inventory, marking the most significant growth ratio among these six submarkets.

  • link

Top 10 Markets for Self Storage Transactions 

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  • The self-storage sector saw over $2.2 billion in transactions in the first 10 months of 2023, a significant decrease from $8.4 billion in the same period in 2022. This decline reflects the economic uncertainty impacting investor activity in the self-storag

    e market.

  • New York led the top 10 markets with nearly $159 million in transactions, although this was lower than the $507 million in 2022. The average price per square foot in New York dropped to $296.8 in 2023 from $542.1 in 2022, indicating a market adjustment.

  • Other notable markets included White Plains, Tampa, and Phoenix, each experiencing shifts in transaction volumes and average prices per square foot. These changes highlight the varying impacts of economic conditions on different regional self-storage markets.

  • link

10 Trends That Will Drive CRE in 2024 

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  1. Labor Market Softening: Unemployment rates are fluctuating, with concerns about the labor force participation rate and the impact of retiring Baby Boomers on the labor market.

  2. Higher Cost of Capital: The Fed's rate hikes have increased the cost of capital, affecting acquisitions, refinancing, and business expansions.

  3. Insurability Challenges: Rising weather-related disasters are leading to higher insurance premiums, especially in high-risk areas.

  4. Sales Volume Decline: After record highs, the market saw a decline in sales volume in 2023, with expectations for a recovery in 2024.

  5. Rising Distress in Properties: CMBS delinquencies are increasing, indicating a higher risk of distressed properties in the market.

  6. Manufacturing Reshoring: There's a significant increase in manufacturing construction, driven by reshoring efforts, particularly in semiconductor and electric vehicle battery facilities.

  7. Shift in Industrial Construction: A decrease in speculative development of industrial facilities, with a focus on build-to-suit projects and specialty facilities.

  8. Office-to-Multifamily Conversions: Municipalities are incentivizing conversions of office spaces to residential, though challenges remain.

  9. Office Rent Dynamics: Despite increased office vacancies, rents have remained resilient, with expectations of rent compression in 2024.

  10. Retailers Investing in Automation: Heavy investment in automation within stores and warehouses to improve efficiency and profits, with a significant increase in AI deployment expected.

    link

That's all, folks. If you enjoyed today's issue, please reply (it helps with deliverability)

Cheers,

Vidit

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