Investors now buying 1 in 3 U.S. homes

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Fintech deposit rates outpace banks, exposing a dangerous mismatch in the system link

• Fintech platforms like Revolut, SoFi, and Wealthfront are offering yields dramatically higher than traditional banks, signaling a widening gap between deposit returns and legacy banking practices.

• Apollo’s Chief Economist Torsten Sløk warns that banks are funding long-term assets with short-term deposits, a classic imbalance that amplifies systemic risk, the same pattern that preceded past financial stress events.

• The rise of high-yield fintech deposits could pressure banks to raise rates or lose capital, forcing tighter margins and potential instability in 2026 if the yield gap persists.

Developers Hit the Brakes as Apartment Absorptions Outpace New Builds 3-to-1 link

• Only 234,900 new market-rate apartments began construction in the year ending Q3 2025, the lowest level in over a decade, down sharply from 587,000 at the 2022 peak.

• Meanwhile, renters absorbed 637,100 units in the same period, meaning 2.7 units rented for every one started, still high, but down from 3.1 just a quarter earlier, showing momentum cooling.

• Developers are retreating fast even as demand stays strong, a setup that could tighten supply and stabilize rents in many markets heading into 2026.

Cap rates can’t keep up, volatility pushes multifamily underwriters to full Discounted Cash Flows link

• Cushman & Wakefield execs say like-for-like multifamily assets are showing cap rate spreads of ~75 bps with little explanation beyond noisy price discovery. When cap rates vary this widely, they stop being reliable guidance for bids or appraisals.

• Debt assumptions and a run-up in operating expenses are driving big swings in NOI forecasts. National operators can sometimes compress expenses that regionals can’t, creating valuation gaps tied to operator scale.

• Appraisers are now using discounted cash flow (DCF) “more often” as checks-and-balances and to capture volatile cash flows, shifting from cap-rate-only shortcuts. As Kaufman puts it, “cap rates are in the eye of the beholder,” especially in unstable financing/expense environments.

My take: If you’re still underwriting deals off a single cap rate, you’re missing the real story. Cash flows are all over the place right now, DCF’s the only way to see what you’re actually buying.

Off-price retailers surge while luxury plateaus link

• Off-price and luxury chains are both outperforming the broader apparel market in 2025, but off-price is posting the stronger traffic gains while luxury visits were flat from June–August. Luxury underperformed much of 2024 before stabilizing this year.

• Luxury’s audience is narrowing: the median household income for luxury shoppers rose from $115k (2022) to $118k (2025), while off-price held steady at $75k, signaling deeper reliance on affluent zip codes.

• Expect the bifurcation to continue: middle-income shoppers are trading down to off-price, while luxury looks resilient but with limited expansion runway; off-price is set to capture both value seekers and affluent “trade-down” visits.

My take: The middle’s getting crushed. Shoppers are either hunting for deals or going all-in on luxury, leaving mid-tier stores stuck with no clear audience. If you’re betting on retail, follow the traffic, I think off-price is where the action is.

Investors now buying 1 in 3 U.S. homes; highest share in 5 years link

• Investors purchased 33% of all single-family homes sold in Q2 2025, up from 27% in Q1, the largest share since 2020, per CJ Patrick Co. and BatchData. Even as overall sales fell, investor dominance grew because traditional buyers pulled back.

• Institutional players like Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent are selling more than they buy for the sixth straight quarter, redirecting funds to build-to-rent projects instead of acquisitions.

• Small investors (10 properties or less) now control over 90% of investor-owned homes, focusing on lower-priced properties averaging $455K, while large landlords are targeting the Midwest and South with average purchases near $280K.

My take: Big landlords are backing off, but small investors are stepping in fast. Feels less like a market recovery and more like regular buyers getting squeezed out while mom-and-pop investors quietly scoop up the deals.

Renters change homes most frequently in these areas link

• 72% of Gen Z renters qualify as “hyper-movers” vs 43% of millennials, 27% of Gen X, and 20% of Boomers. About 4 in 10 Gen Z moves are to another apartment in the same area.

• Austin tops “move-easy” metros, with 50%+ of renters switching apartments locally within 24 months (2018–2023). The hottest rental markets see fewer quick moves due to sky-high occupancy and more renewals.

• Provo, UT records the highest two-year churn at 60%, with other high-mobility spots including Fayetteville (AR), Denver, Salt Lake City, Boise, Colorado Springs, Orlando and Des Moines; 12 of the top 30 are in the Southeast, with Charleston rising fastest.

Tool of the day: RealtyOmega

RealtyOmega is a generative AI tool for real estate investment, analyzing global data to identify investment opportunities, assess financial factors, and provide insights on market trends, enhancing operational efficiency and decision-making for users in asset management.

AI Developers Are Quietly Rebuilding Real Estate From the Ground Up link

Stackademic highlights how predictive analytics, AVMs, and generative AI tours are driving a new era of “smart properties,” boosting ROI up to 20% while cutting valuation and maintenance time across residential and commercial assets.

Radian Publishes Its AI Governance Playbook link

SVP Steve Gaenzler outlines how Radian built a disciplined AI framework balancing automation and compliance, turning data science investments into a long-term competitive edge across mortgage and real estate operations.

Douglas Elliman Launches “Elli” AI Assistant to Supercharge Agents link

The brokerage rolled out Elli, a voice-enabled AI that drafts listing descriptions, schedules showings, and tracks deals, marking one of the largest AI deployments by a national luxury real estate brand.

CRE’s AI Paradox: 90% Have Teams, 93% Face Roadblocks link

Dealpath’s new survey shows nearly all institutional CRE firms are building AI teams but most still struggle with expertise gaps, compliance risks, and data silos, revealing how enthusiasm outpaces readiness in real estate’s AI race.

22 State Economies Slip Into or Near Recession, Why That’s Bad News for Housing link

• Nearly one-third of the U.S. economy is now in recession territory, per Moody’s Analytics. Twenty-two states, representing a third of national GDP, are shrinking or at high risk, while another third are flat.

• Job growth has cratered, with just 27,000 jobs added monthly from May through August, and private employers shedding 32,000 jobs in September, according to ADP. The missing September jobs report has left policymakers “flying blind.”

• Housing markets could diverge sharply: the Northeast’s strong fundamentals may cushion it, but softer markets like Texas, Florida, and Arizona are still expanding, potentially avoiding a full-blown crash if local economies hold.

Why Senior Living Investors Are Chasing Smaller Deals

America’s Richest ZIP Codes Just Got a Shake-Up 

Housing deals are unraveling fast and a few cities are ground zero

Top 10 Metros With the Highest Foreclosure Rates

The next CRE gold rush: where aging buildings are turning into green profit machines 

Proptech Startups That Just Got Funded

Ranked: America’s Most Dangerous Cities, According to Citizens

A historical beauty in the heart of Chicago

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