Mapped: America’s Sinking Cities

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AI Agents Are Quietly Replacing Human Roles—Here’s Who’s at Risk link

• AI agents are becoming digital teammates, not just tools—Salesforce estimates the market for digital labor could reach trillions of dollars, reshaping how companies hire and operate.

• These agents are already replacing tasks in finance, customer service, and operations, challenging long-held ideas about what only humans can do.

• Companies adopting agentic AI are restructuring teams, redefining roles, and in some cases, skipping traditional hires in favor of AI-led workstreams.

Shopping centers surge—even as tariffs and spending worries loom link

• Shopping center investment volume jumped 26% year-over-year in Q1 2025, outpacing the broader retail sector’s 2% gain. This growth is driven by a shortage of new supply and high tenant demand.

• Occupancy and rent growth remain strong due to minimal new retail development since 2008, with major brands like TJ Maxx and Ross expanding aggressively.

• Even bankruptcies are opening doors—Burlington Coat Factory is taking over 45 Joann store leases, showing how big box retailers are snapping up scarce storefronts to lock in future growth.

Luxury Renters Are Back—Class A Apartments Hit 95.7% Occupancy link

• Class A apartments saw the sharpest year-over-year occupancy rise—up 170 basis points to 95.7%, the highest since June 2022, despite record new supply in 2023. Class C units, which typically lead in occupancy, now lag slightly behind.

• Over 400,000 multifamily units were added in 2023—the most in 30+ years—but strong renter demand, driven by high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices, has kept absorption steady. Sun Belt cities and major metros are leading this trend.

• Rent growth in Class A properties has cooled to just 2–3% annually, down from 10%+ in previous years, while generous concessions (like free rent months) are helping landlords quickly fill premium units.

Midsize lenders fight to stay alive as mortgage profits shrink link

• Kind Lending, launched during the pandemic, is thriving with a lean model after founder Glenn Stearns’s previous company, Stearns Lending, went bankrupt in 2019. The key difference? Fewer overhead costs and tighter focus on wholesale channels.

• Private equity exits and closures are accelerating: Blackstone-backed Stearns Lending shut down its wholesale arm just a year after being sold to Rate in 2021, showing how fast capital can vanish in this market.

• Some lenders are shifting focus to loan servicing and alternative products to stay profitable as origination volumes drop. This includes DSCR loans, non-QM tools, and investor-focused offerings.

U.S. Home Values Slip $200B—But Equity Still Near Record High link

• Total U.S. homeowner real estate value dropped by $200 billion in Q1 2025, landing at $47.9 trillion—still the fourth-highest on record. Despite the dip, home values are up $960 billion year-over-year (a 2.1% gain).

• Home equity fell by $250 billion to $34.5 trillion but still accounts for 72% of real estate value—higher than any time between 1961 and 2023. Even a 20% home price crash would only bring it down to 65%, comparable to 2019 levels.

• New home completions dropped 12.3% in April vs. last year, while mortgage debt hit a record $13.4 trillion. Slowing construction and persistent high equity suggest low risk of a major housing correction.

Population growth picks up nationwide—Northeast cities rebound hard link

• Cities with populations under 5,000 grew by just 0.3%, while mid-sized cities (10k–49,999) grew the fastest at 1.1%—pointing to stronger momentum in smaller metros.

• The Northeast reversed course in 2024 after declines in 2023, now showing “significant” growth across cities of all sizes, a sharp regional shift.

• Small cities in the South were the only group not to accelerate, maintaining the same growth rate as the year prior despite the national uptick.

Inventory Surge Reshapes Market—West Sees 41% Jump link

• Active listings are up across the U.S., with every region seeing at least 19% growth year-over-year. The West leads with a 41% surge, signaling major shifts in availability.

• May 2025 saw the highest number of new listings in three years, as more homeowners listed despite high mortgage rates. Homes are also sitting on the market longer, with the average selling time now 51 days.

• Some areas have returned to pre-pandemic inventory levels (2017–2019), while others still lag well behind. Regional gaps in recovery mean local data matters more than ever for investors.

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Vidit

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