Metros with the most housing wealth

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Markets Are Forgetting the Past—Are We Headed Back to the 1970s? link

• Many investors assume today’s high yields are abnormal, but bond yields were far higher during previous inflationary decades like the 1970s. If we’re re-entering a similar era, today’s yields may actually be the new normal—not high.

• The S&P 500 continues to hit all-time highs, and investors are treating that as a buy signal, ignoring structural risks like ballooning U.S. fiscal deficits and rising inflation pressure.

• The market tends to overweight recent trends, largely because many current traders haven’t experienced past economic regimes—creating blind spots in long-term decision-making.

Office Demand Collapses Again link

• In April, 17 of the 19 largest U.S. office markets saw a drop in tenant demand, with new office tours down 23% and square footage sought falling 26% compared to March. The pattern closely mirrors the post-SVB banking crisis slump from 2023.

• This year marks the first time since at least 2018 that more U.S. office space is being removed than added, according to CBRE. Developers are pulling back due to uncertainty, signaling longer-term supply shrinkage.

• A JLL report shows office leasing demand dropped 2% in Q2—breaking a six-quarter growth streak. Tariff concerns, geopolitical tension, and unclear fiscal policy are driving investor and tenant hesitation.

Single-Family Construction Slumps as Unsold Homes Pile Up link

• Single-family housing starts fell 10% year-over-year in June 2025, with every U.S. region reporting a decline except the Midwest, where affordability is stronger and seller leverage still exists.

• Builders are pulling back amid rising inventory and a slow buying season—May saw the largest drop in new home sales since June 2022, pushing unsold new homes higher and dampening builder confidence.

• Despite the building slowdown, the U.S. still faces a 4.7 million home shortfall; the supply crunch is far from over, and this pause in construction could worsen long-term affordability.

Boomers Are Sitting on Nearly $19 Trillion in Real Estate—Here’s Where They Hold the Most Housing Wealth link

• In five Florida metros alone, boomers aged 65+ control over $350 billion in real estate value—North Port-Bradenton leads with $97 billion and a 56% boomer homeownership rate. Naples-Marco Island ranks second, with a median home price of $749,000 and 57% of homes owned by retirees.

• The Villages in Florida stands out with 78% of homeowners over 65—the highest in the country—and a median home price of just $369,900, making it a high-concentration, lower-cost retiree stronghold.

• Boomers now hold up to $19 trillion of the $34.5 trillion in U.S. home equity, and with 12,000 people turning 65 daily through 2027, this generational grip on housing wealth isn’t loosening anytime soon.

Island Homes Surge in Value—Some Top $4M link

• Prices on popular U.S. islands far exceed the national median, with Nantucket topping the list at a staggering $4.8M median and seven other islands hovering around or above $1.4M. Limited land and demand from wealthy buyers drive this price pressure.

• The Golden Isles in Georgia offer a more affordable entry point, with a median list price of $474,950—less than half of most others on the list. Investors looking for appreciation potential may find value in overlooked, lower-priced markets.

• Inventory is tight across most islands, but especially in the Florida Keys, where constrained land supply keeps prices resilient even during broader housing downturns. The region saw a pandemic-era surge but is now showing signs of a healthy correction.

Tool of the Day – Ergeon

Tech-enabled marketplace for outdoor residential construction services (e.g. fencing, landscaping etc.)

Crexi Co-Founder Launches AI Startup to Tackle $3T CRE Debt Wall link

A new AI venture is arming brokers and lenders with real-time debt intelligence to navigate the $3 trillion wave of maturing commercial real estate loans.

AI Is Quietly Reprogramming the Office Real Estate Market link

From layout design to energy use and tenant analytics, AI is helping landlords rethink underused office space and drive higher ROI per square foot.

Tidalwave Snags Top Talent to Disrupt the Mortgage Game with AI link

AI mortgage startup Tidalwave just hired execs from ICE and nCino, signaling a serious push to automate underwriting and shake up how loans get approved.

Morgan Stanley: AI Is Becoming a Core Driver of Real Estate Alpha link

Institutional investors are turning to AI for everything from site selection to rent forecasting — reshaping how real estate value is created and captured.

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Alligator Drive at Alligator Point on Alligator Bay

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Vidit

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