Mid-Sized Cities Are Crushing SFR Rent Growth Right Now

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Housing, Healthcare, and Tuition Are Eating Up 37% of U.S. Household Budgets link

• In 1960, U.S. households spent just 22% of their budgets on housing, healthcare, and tuition combined. As of 2025, that number has jumped to 37%, squeezing out spending on other goods and services.

• This growing share of essential expenses leaves less room for discretionary income—bad news for retail, travel, and entertainment sectors reliant on consumer surplus.

• Real estate investors should note: housing remains a non-negotiable cost for most households, reinforcing its durability as an asset class even during downturns in consumer spending.

Mid-Sized Cities Are Crushing SFR Rent Growth Right Now link

• Albany, NY saw the strongest SFR rent growth in the U.S. at 3.3% through June, reaching an average rent of $2,338—$14 above the national average. Its growth is backed by steady public sector jobs, tech expansion, and limited housing supply.

• 14 of the top 20 rent-growth cities had rents below the national average, and 19 had populations under 2.5 million. This signals a clear trend: mid-sized, affordable markets are leading rent growth, not major metros.

• Winston, NC (3.2%) and Columbia, SC (2.9%) were close behind Albany, both offering sub-$2,000 average rents. In contrast, Florida markets like Cape Coral and North Port saw rents drop nearly 1%, showing regional divergence.

Fed under pressure as labor data triggers political chaos and inflation warnings link

• President Trump’s surprise firing of the BLS Commissioner and the Fed Governor's resignation are raising serious doubts about the reliability of government economic data. Investors are watching closely for signs of political interference in market-moving stats.

• Labor costs in Q1 surged faster than productivity, fueling wage-driven inflation concerns; if Q2 shows the same, the Fed may hold off on rate cuts longer than expected. Thursday’s report on unit labor costs will be a key signal.

• Although the Fed’s next meeting is in September, upcoming speeches this week from multiple Fed officials could hint at whether the July jobs slowdown is shifting the outlook toward rate cuts or if they’ll continue waiting.

Outdated models are putting senior housing investors at risk link

• Overbuilding in the 2010s—driven by cheap capital and low interest rates—pushed occupancy down even as penetration rose. Developers built faster than demand could keep up.

• A key reason demand remains weak: the current senior cohort was born during the Great Depression-era "baby bust," meaning there are fewer seniors than investors expected. This demographic dip is still dragging down occupancy today.

• Despite COVID shocks and rising costs, many developers still assume fast lease-ups and high rent growth. Morton warns that demand is only growing 5–6% annually, while supply is growing just 1%—a reversal that underwriting models aren’t accounting for.

Home prices are sliding fast in these 5 cities link

• Oakland home prices fell 6.8% year-over-year, with a new median of $850,000, marking the sharpest drop among major U.S. cities as of late July.

• West Palm Beach and Jacksonville also saw steep drops, down 4.9% and 3.1% respectively, signaling cooling demand even in previously hot Sun Belt markets.

• Nationwide median prices hit $435,300 in June, but in 14 of the 50 largest metros, prices are now falling as homes sit on the market longer and inventory builds up.

Sellers Flood Market, But Buyers Still Waiting on Rates link

• Active inventory surged 23.7% year-over-year, hitting 1.1 million homes for sale—marking 12 straight weeks above the million mark, the highest since late 2019. But buyers aren’t moving, with mortgage rates still hovering at 6.72%.

• Homes are sitting longer—7 more days on average than last year—as the share of listings with price cuts stays elevated. Price reductions and delistings are both up this summer, signaling soft demand and seller hesitation.

• For the first time since May, the median list price showed no year-over-year growth, even though price per square foot nudged up 0.5%. This suggests a shift toward smaller, lower-cost homes entering the market.

Tool of the day - Rilla

Voice-analysis platform that uses AI to capture and analyze in-person sales conversations in retail

Avoiding Legal Landmines When Using AI in Commercial Real Estate – link

EisnerAmper warns CRE firms to tread carefully with AI — highlighting risks around bias, data misuse, and compliance as adoption accelerates.

AI Will Reshape the Entire Real Estate Ecosystem – link

From MLS consolidation to smarter investor strategies, the John L. Scott CEO says AI is set to redefine how agents, platforms, and clients interact in the years ahead.

AI Is Driving Up the Cost of Data Breaches in Real Estate – link

IBM reports average breach costs hit $4.45M — with AI-enabled attacks and mishandled data in real estate and finance sectors fueling the surge.

How AI Is Quietly Rewriting the Rules of Property Investing – link

From automated deal sourcing to predictive pricing models, AI is giving investors faster insights and a major edge in finding and funding high-return opportunities.

America’s Hottest ZIP Codes of 2025 Show Buyers Are Shifting Priorities link

• Homes in the top 10 ZIPs sold 30 to 42 days faster than the national median and attracted 3.3 to 5.2 times more views per listing—signaling intense competition and urgency in these areas.

• Beverly, MA topped the list with homes selling in just 16 days and pulling nearly 5x the typical online traffic, despite a $719K median list price—showing buyers are paying a premium for suburban value near big cities.

• Midwest ZIPs like Ballwin, MO and Strongsville, OH are outperforming their metros, with prices up to 25% higher than nearby cities, suggesting strong local demand from affluent buyers seeking space, schools, and affordability.

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European Tower vibes!

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Vidit

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