NAR prediction on home sales

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⚡ Snapshot: The 7/6 SOFR ARM dropped the most today (-0.11%), while fixed-rate loans were mostly flat to slightly higher, creating a mixed but stable rate environment.

Employers warn Class of 2026 job market will be weakest since 2020 link

• Over half of 183 employers say the Class of 2026 job market looks poor or fair. Job postings fell more than 16% year over year and applications per job rose 26%.

• Layoffs at Amazon, UPS, and Verizon are adding pressure. Recent graduate unemployment hit 4.8% in June, the highest in four years.

My take: A tougher job market means fewer new households next year. Expect more renters staying put and slower demand for entry level homes.

NAR predicts home sales will jump 14% in 2026 link

• NAR forecasts existing home sales will rise 14% in 2026 after three years of the lowest sales volume since 1995. New home sales are expected to grow 5%, supported by an estimated 1.3 million new jobs.

• First time buyers fell to 21% of all buyers in 2025, an all time low. Cash buyers hit 26%, an all time high, with 30% of repeat buyers paying all cash.

My take: If this rebound plays out, demand will come from equity rich buyers, not new entrants. Brokers should prepare for another year where the lower end stays tight while the upper tiers lead activity.

Blackstone takes big hit on $1.8B senior housing bet as sector rallies link

• As per GlobeSt, Blackstone is unloading about 90 senior housing properties with 9,000 units, with some assets selling at losses of up to 70% and total write downs above $600M.

• Sonida Senior Living and CNL Healthcare Properties announced a $1.8B merger, creating a $3B senior housing platform that will become the eighth largest owner in the sector.

My take: The reset in pricing will likely pull more institutional capital back into senior housing, but only toward operators with strong cost control and stable labor models.

Big box demand lifts industrial to best quarter since 2023 link

• Net absorption hit 36M sq ft in Q3 as big box leasing drove the best performance since 2023. Vacancy held near 7.5%, while the construction pipeline fell for the 12th straight quarter to 260M sq ft, its lowest since 2016.

• Sales volume rose 11% year over year with private buyers making up nearly half of all deals. Manufacturing construction stayed historically high at $114B in July, with the South leading at $132B over the past year.

My take: Supply is tightening just as demand steadies, which sets up firmer rents in 2026. Investors may lean into big box and Southern markets where this imbalance will show up first.

Austin Supply Falls Sharply in 2026 as Rents Slide link

• Austin’s inventory growth is set to fall from 6.4% this year to 3% in 2026, with just 10,313 units delivering, the lowest pipeline since 2018. Despite strong demand, occupancy sits at 92.7% and rents fell 7.4% year over year, the second-steepest drop among large U.S. markets.

• East Austin and Round Rock led supply and demand, but all 16 submarkets saw rent declines, with Class C rents down 14.6%. Forecasts call for demand to exceed supply in 2026, with occupancy expected to rebound to 95%.

Tool of the day: Ility

A white-label real-estate SaaS platform that unifies leasing, maintenance, energy, and tenant systems

Acres Adds AI Tool to Help Builders Read Land Signals Faster link

HousingWire’s John McManus reports that Acres.com launched a new AI-powered analysis tool to help builders make clearer land decisions in a stalled market. The platform blends parcel-level data for 150 million properties with an AI layer that answers site and portfolio questions instantly. Acres says the tool helps teams spot risk, compare comps, and act with confidence while others wait.

AI Is Quietly Rebuilding the AVM Playbook for 2026 link

Medium’s Shivang Shukla reports that today’s AVMs blend public records, MLS data, GIS layers, and machine learning to deliver instant valuations with confidence scores. The article highlights how new U.S. rules taking effect on Oct 1, 2025 will require strict accuracy, bias testing, and audit controls, pushing AVMs toward heavier governance. It also notes that vision AI and forecasting tools are turning AVMs from static pricing engines into forward-looking valuation systems for lenders and investors.

NAR Flags AI as a Growing Risk for Realtors link

HousingWire’s Brooklee Han reports that NAR warned agents about rising AI-related risks, from listing fraud to bad AI outputs that could violate Fair Housing rules. Property Shield says fraudulent listings now make up 15–25% of some markets, while E&O claim severity keeps climbing. Experts also cautioned that using free AI tools can expose client data, making secure AI use a priority for agents.

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