Office deals roaring back

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Long-term unemployment in the US has risen to a postpandemic high link

• 1.9 million Americans were unemployed for 27+ weeks in August, nearly double early 2023. They now make up 25.7% of all unemployed, a level historically seen only after recessions.

• The six-month mark often means unemployment benefits and severance run out, raising financial strain. Long spells can erode skills and employability, hurting the broader economy.

• Labor market is “hire less, fire less,” but the shock is who’s stuck: college grads. Their share of the long-term unemployed rose from ~20% a decade ago to one-third today.

85% of student beds leased, but rent growth slows link

• Pre-leasing hit 85.3% nationally, up 160 bps YoY, with 50 universities already 90%+ pre-leased and 10 schools fully leased. But 20 campuses, including Temple and UT-Arlington, are still below 70%.

• Rent growth slowed to just 1.3% YoY, the weakest since April 2021, as operators cut prices to fill beds. Markets without new supply (Mizzou, Kansas) saw double-digit gains, while oversupplied areas lagged.

• Investment activity is mixed: only 50 student housing properties sold YTD, but price per bed surged to $94K vs. a $73.5K median since 2020, reflecting a 23% rent-per-bed jump since then.

Big money is leaving U.S. warehouses for overseas factories link

• Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern’s merger could unlock prime land for rail-served industrial parks and manufacturing sites, a major play for logistics-heavy investors.

• Fundraising is rebounding, but allocations to industrial are flattening after years of record inflows, suggesting more disciplined capital deployment ahead.

• Manufacturing demand is creating a multiplier effect: every new plant is driving warehouse needs ~3X larger than the factory itself.

My take: Feels like the big wave of “buy anything industrial” is gone. Now the edge will come from being picky-rail sites, supplier space, and markets where manufacturing actually lands.

Office deals roar back , $25.9B in H1 sales, double pace of data centers link

• Office transaction volume surged 42% YoY to $25.9B in H1 2025, with JLL reporting office sales alone up 110%, more momentum than any other property type, including data centers.

• Investor bids jumped 50%, hitting $16B in Q2, the highest since mid-2022, while deals over $100M soared 130% as institutions pile into top-tier office assets.

• With just 6M sq. ft. of new office space set for delivery next year, 90% below post-GFC norms, scarcity is expected to drive rent and absorption pressure higher over the next five years.

My take: The real story isn’t just capital coming back, it’s that almost no new supply is hitting the market. That scarcity flips office from “toxic asset” to potential pricing power play, especially in Class A, where landlords could quietly regain the upper hand.

Housing supply posts biggest drop in 2 years, sellers retreat even as rates slip to ~6.3% link

• Active listings fell 1.4% MoM in August, the biggest drop since June 2023, while new listings slid 1.1% to the lowest since January 2024 and -2.6% YoY. Despite rates easing, Redfin still expects ~4.05M existing-home sales in 2025, roughly flat with 2024 (worst since 1995).

• Buyer leverage improved: sellers outnumber buyers by 35.2% (2nd-largest margin on record) with 3.3 months of supply, the highest August in a decade. The median home took 47 days to go under contract (slowest August since 2016) and sold for 1.2% under final list (steepest August discount since 2019).

• Rates averaged 6.59% in August and dipped to ~6.26% last week, but purchase demand hasn’t popped yet. Midwest prices led (Detroit +10%, Cleveland +8.7%) while pockets cooled (Dallas -3.3%, West Palm -1.7%, Phoenix -1.1%).

My take: If mortgage rates kiss 6%, the first surge will be refis, not purchases, so investors still have room to grind for concessions, especially in high-DOM Sunbelt markets while leaning into Midwest momentum.

Fixer-uppers sell at a 54% discount, Midwest and South metros lead the ROI play link

• Nationwide, fixer-uppers are listed at a median of $200K, a 54.2% discount from the $436K U.S. single-family median. They’re older (built ~1958) and smaller (1,628 sq ft vs 2,000 sq ft).

• Investor attention is surging: fixer-upper listings get 52% more page views than comparable homes, and keyword searches have tripled since 2021. Homes marketed as fixer-uppers now spend only 2.5 days longer on market than peers, a narrower gap than four years ago.

• The “Fixer-Upper Five” - St. Louis, Detroit, Jackson (MS), Toledo, and Dayton rank top in both availability and discount, with deals as steep as 77.7% off local medians (Jackson).

Tool of the day- Restb.ai

An AI-powered image recognition platform for real estate that automatically tags, classifies, and analyzes property photos to enhance searchability, streamline listings, and improve marketing efficiency.

AI Property Reports Move Into MLS Systems link

RealReports and Restb.ai are embedding appraisal-grade image analysis into Georgia and Ohio MLS platforms, giving 89,000+ agents sharper comps, cleaner visuals, and condition-based property insights to win client trust.

Oracle’s $244B AI Spike Stirs Bubble Fears in CRE link

Economists warn the stock surge mirrors dot-com froth, raising risks for data centers, offices, and property valuations if an AI bubble bursts, though long-term CRE gains could mirror the internet era.

RealAnalytica Promises to Kill the $800 Realtor Tech Stack link

Providence startup RealAnalytica just launched “Atlas AI,” a voice-powered OS that replaces 10–15 real estate tools with one $149/month platform, letting agents run CMAs, scheduling, and lead gen by simply asking.

AI Rewrites Mortgage Audits But Humans Still Hold the Gavel link

ACES just launched the first AI built for quality control, drafting audit notes and spotting loan risks in seconds, while experts stress that human judgment remains essential to catch nuance and compliance gaps.

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10 Emerging U.S. Industrial Markets to Watch in 2025

2026 US CRE supply outlook: Which metros face the biggest pressure?

Homebuilding is becoming less cyclical

Congress extends Opportunity Zones, investors eye a bigger play in multifamily

Multifamily Cap Rates Signal Turning Point for Investors

Proptech Startups That Just Got Funded

Ranked: U.S. States With the Highest Credit Card Debt

A school conversion that actually turned right?

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Vidit

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