Refi Booms in These 10 Metros

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Refi Booms in These 10 Metros—Texas Dominates link

• Lubbock, TX saw a massive 70.4% jump in refinance mortgage originations in Q1 2025, rising from 557 to 949 loans. It led the nation in quarterly refinance growth despite the broader market cooling off.

• While total refinance activity fell 12.2% nationally, year-over-year it was actually up 16.1%, signaling a surprising rebound in long-term refi interest.

• Refinance loans now make up over 40% of all mortgage activity, up from just 33% in late 2023, showing investors are pivoting from purchases to equity plays as high rates slow buying.

• Click on the link to see the rest of the list.

My take:

Honestly surprised by how strong the refi wave is in smaller metros—Lubbock and McAllen weren’t on anyone’s radar. This feels like something investors should watch, especially as buying slows and equity taps rise.

Construction Spending Slips—Residential Sector Sees Bigger Drop link

• Total U.S. construction spending fell to $2.15 trillion in April 2025, a 0.4% dip from March and 0.5% lower than April 2024. This marks a modest pullback after several months of steady spending.

• Residential construction was hit harder, falling 0.9% from March to an annual rate of $892.8 billion. That’s a signal of softening in the housing development pipeline.

• The downturn breaks a trend of stability and may reflect caution from developers amid rising costs or cooling demand. Watch for how this affects housing supply later in 2025.

My take:

Drop in residential could hint at tighter builder sentiment. I’d keep an eye on how this affects inventory in Q3 and Q4.

Zombie foreclosures surge—rural South and Midwest hardest hit link

• Zombie foreclosures rose to 7,329 in Q2 2025, now making up 3.3% of all pre-foreclosure properties—up from 2.9% a year ago. These vacant, abandoned homes can drag down nearby property values and signal market stress.

• North Carolina, Iowa, and Texas led year-over-year zombie increases, with spikes over 50% each. Rural areas with low property values are seeing owners and lenders walk away entirely.

• Wichita, KS tops the list of metro zombie hot spots with 12.1% of pre-foreclosures sitting vacant, followed by Peoria, IL and Toledo, OH. Florida ZIPs also made the top 5, driven by HOA and insurance cost burdens.

Small Investors Surge as Investor Home Sales Hit Record High / Investor home sales hit record high as small buyers gain ground link

• Investor home sales reached a record 10.8% share of all U.S. transactions in 2024, while purchases hit 13%—narrowing the buy-sell gap to its smallest since 2019 and signaling cooling investor pressure on the market.

• Small investors (under 10 properties) made up 59.2% of investor purchases—an all-time high—while large investors (50+ homes) dropped to 21.7%, their lowest share since 2007.

• Investor cash purchases fell to their lowest point since 2008, with small-investor cash deals dropping from 65.6% to 62%—suggesting more reliance on financing and tighter margins.

My take:

Feels like the tide’s turning a bit—everyday buyers are jumping in just as institutional money steps back. Could shake things up in the mid-range markets sooner than people expect.

Home prices fall in 42 U.S. cities—Sun Belt metros hit hardest link

• 42 of the 300 largest U.S. metros saw home price drops year-over-year, up from 31 markets last month, showing an expanding correction trend. Notably, Austin (-3.8%) and Tampa (-3.6%) led the declines.

• Florida and Texas dominate the list, with 20 and 9 metros respectively seeing falling prices. These states also now have inventory levels above pre-pandemic 2019 levels, shifting leverage to buyers.

• New construction deals are undercutting resale prices in softening markets like Phoenix and Orlando, as builders cut prices or offer incentives to move supply—cooling overall price momentum.

Anaheim bucks the trend—only large apartment market to see net move-outs link

• Anaheim saw a net loss of 319 apartment units in Q1 2025—the only one among the 50 largest U.S. markets to post negative absorption, while others gained. This marks the 15th time in 29 years that Q1 has shown net move-outs in the city.

• Despite move-outs, Anaheim's occupancy remains strong at 96.3%, ranking fourth nationally behind New York, Newark, and San Francisco. Occupancy has stayed above 95% for 13 straight years.

• Irvine submarkets drove the decline, accounting for 309 out of 319 net move-outs in Anaheim. Meanwhile, neighboring SoCal markets like LA and San Diego absorbed between 1,900 and 3,400 units.

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Cheers,

Vidit

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