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Will We See a Repeat of 2021 and the 1970s? link

• Apollo’s chief economist says tariffs, a weaker dollar, and Fed infighting could push inflation and expectations higher, echoing 2021 or even the 1970s.

• He warns of another “inflation mountain” forming in the coming months, with charts showing the parallels.

• The Fed’s split focus between slowing jobs and rising prices increases the risk of policy missteps, which could prolong inflation pressures.

Manufactured housing beats CRE slump - investors chase steady cash flow link

• The U.S. now has 7.4 million manufactured housing units, and production hit 103,000 in 2024—double what it was a decade ago—yet vacancy remains just 5.2%. Demand is holding even as supply expands.

• Manufactured housing cap rates have nearly converged with multifamily: in 2015 the spread was 145 basis points, but by 2024 rates were nearly identical at 5.48% vs. 5.52%. Investors are valuing the sector more like core multifamily.

• Credit performance is strong: delinquency rates are only 1.39% compared to 10.99% for office and 6.19% for multifamily. Institutional ownership is still just 20%, leaving room for more capital to enter.

Multifamily supply surge: Yardi lifts 2025–27 completions forecast link

• Yardi now expects about 550,000 multifamily units to deliver in 2025, 430,000 in 2026, and 360,500 in 2027—raising forecasts by 2.1%, 1.8%, and 2.9%. The Q2 2025 pipeline still holds more than 1 million units despite a 6.5% quarterly drop.

• Market-rate apartment deliveries are set to collapse 60% by 2026 compared to 2024, nearly twice the decline forecast for affordable housing. This signals a widening supply gap between luxury and affordable segments.

• Federal incentives under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—expanding LIHTC funding and lowering bond thresholds—could push more capital into affordable housing and reshape delivery trends beyond 2027.

CMBS delinquencies climb again - office and multifamily pain deepens link

• The overall CMBS delinquency rate rose to 7.29% in August, up for the sixth straight month, with $44.1 billion now delinquent out of $604.6 billion outstanding.

• Multifamily delinquencies jumped 71 basis points to 6.86%, the highest in nine years, while office hit another record at 11.66% after a 62-point surge.

• Retail was the only bright spot, with its delinquency rate falling 48 basis points to 6.42%, the lowest level in a year.

Investor housing market share dips but stays high link

• Investors bought 32% of single-family homes in January 2025, but their share slipped to 29% by June. Even with the dip, activity is still well above past averages.

• Medium-sized investors—those larger than mom-and-pop landlords but smaller than Wall Street firms—are driving much of the buying volume. Their influence has grown steadily in recent years.

• The decline in Q2 signals cooling momentum, but the sustained high share suggests investors remain a major force shaping housing supply and affordability.

Affordable listings hit 3-year high, but true housing relief still out of reach link

• About 439,000 homes were affordable to median-income households in July 2025, the most since August 2022 and 20% higher than last year, thanks to an 18% jump in total inventory. But only 31.7% of listings were affordable, far below the 53.7% share in July 2020.

• Affordability is split by region: more than half of listings were affordable in Buffalo, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Cleveland, while Los Angeles offered just 3% and San Diego only 6.4%. Sun Belt markets like Austin and Phoenix saw the sharpest gains in affordability share.

• Zillow says it would take mortgage rates dropping to 4.43% or home values falling 18% to make the typical U.S. home affordable—both scenarios tied to economic downturn. The underlying problem is a 4.7 million-home deficit that can only be solved by building more housing.

Tool of the day - Higharc

Connected cloud platform for automated homebuilding design and planning.

Building the Ultimate AI Tech Stack for Multifamily Operators – link

Altus Group outlines how owners can layer AI tools for leasing, maintenance, and revenue management — creating a streamlined, future-proof multifamily operation.

JLL’s CTO Explains How AI Will Redefine Commercial Real Estate – link

JLL CTO Yao Morin shares how AI is driving smarter site selection, portfolio optimization, and tenant experiences — setting the stage for a data-first CRE industry.

AI Is Reinventing the Multifamily Maintenance Call Center – link

AI-driven call centers are triaging tenant requests, predicting repair needs, and dispatching vendors faster — slashing costs while improving resident satisfaction.

Realie Uses AI to Create Ultra-Realistic Virtual Property Tours – link

The new platform blends AI and VR to generate lifelike, customizable property walkthroughs — giving buyers immersive experiences without stepping inside.

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