Top 10 US Markets Bracing for the Next Big Supply Surge

Sponsored by

New here? Join the newsletter (it's free).

AI adoption stalls at big firms, Census data shows slowdown link

• A U.S. Census Bureau biweekly survey of 1.2 million firms shows that AI use among companies with more than 250 employees has been trending down. The measure tracks usage of tools like machine learning, NLP, and virtual agents in the past two weeks.

• The decline is clear in the six-survey moving average, pointing to a sustained slowdown rather than a one-off dip. Smaller companies are not seeing the same decline in adoption.

• Large firms had been early leaders in experimenting with AI, but the recent drop suggests challenges in scaling or justifying ongoing investment in these tools.

Office sales in crisis, nearly half selling at steep discounts link

• Nearly 46% of office properties sold in 2025 traded below prior valuations, compared with just 20% in 2021. Distress is concentrated in big metros—Houston (69%), San Francisco (67%), Manhattan and D.C. (64%).

• Surprisingly, top-tier assets are hit hardest: 71% of A/A+ Class properties sold at a discount since 2023, versus 38% of B-Class and 19% of C-Class. This flips the assumption that “flight to quality” would protect higher-end offices.

• Central business district offices are struggling most, with 70% selling at discounts, while suburban assets saw just 39%. Vacancies remain stubbornly high—San Francisco at 26.3% and Austin at 27.2%—even as Miami defies the trend with 15% rent growth and 14.3% vacancy.

Top 10 market with the largest increase in permits-next supply wave coming? link

• Dallas permitted 17,684 multifamily units in the year ending July, up 4,566 from last year, marking nine straight months of gains from its low point in November 2024. The city has already led the nation in completions since mid-2024.

• Columbus, OH permitted over 7,600 units in July, overtaking Miami for the top spot among individual cities, while Houston and Orlando also posted big year-over-year jumps. Northern Dallas suburbs like Frisco, Denton, Carrollton, and McKinney are quietly adding to the metro’s surge.

• By contrast, New York, Phoenix, and Austin saw sharp permitting declines, with Washington DC (-3,621 units), Tampa (-3,290), and Los Angeles (-2,796) also pulling back, signaling uneven supply trends across major metros.

In Vacation Towns, Home Sales Are Falling and Prices Are Stagnating link

• Sales in seasonal towns fell 3% YoY in July vs. a 1% drop in non-seasonal areas; second-home mortgages hit their lowest level in at least six years in 2024. Seasonal towns make up ~9% of U.S. sales and include 288 markets, with 104 in Florida where pending sales in Miami and Fort Lauderdale are falling fastest.

• Inventory in vacation markets is piling up: active listings +17% YoY vs. +14% in non-seasonal towns, while new listings are down 3% (vs. +2%). Prices are flat at a $583,000 median—still >$100,000 above non-seasonal towns ($451,000, +2% YoY)—creating negotiation room for buyers, including deals on Miami beachfront condos.

• Short-term rental math is getting worse: tighter rules (e.g., LA), softer bookings, and saturated supply are pressuring yields. Owners are offloading Airbnbs, HOA fees are eating margins, and only move-in-ready homes around $400k–$500k in places like Palm Springs are still moving fast.

Housing market stalls, listings sit as buyers retreat link

• Active inventory rose 19.5% year-over-year to about 1.1 million homes, but growth has slowed for 11 straight weeks, showing more homes are lingering on the market instead of selling.

• Median listing prices and price per square foot have both flatlined compared to last year, with homes now sitting eight days longer before finding a buyer.

• New listings grew just 0.7% from a year ago—the weakest pace since April 2025—suggesting many homeowners are delaying sales amid high mortgage rates and weak demand.

Crypto in Housing: $200M in Deals Closed, But Most Buyers Still Don’t Trust It link

• Realtor.com research found most consumers are aware of crypto but nearly all distrust it for real estate; participants cited volatility, risk, and user errors like losing wallet access as deal-breakers.

• Christie’s International Real Estate Southern California has already closed over $200 million in crypto-only property deals and has $1 billion more in listings seeking crypto offers, signaling strong demand among high-net-worth buyers.

• The Trump administration ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to explore counting crypto holdings as mortgage assets, which could expand loan eligibility—but payments would still need to be made in dollars.

Florida retail vacancies stay under 4% as new law slashes $1.3B in lease costs link

• Florida holds nearly 1.3 billion sq. ft. of retail space—11% of all U.S. inventory—and accounted for 26% of new supply in early 2025. Despite that, statewide vacancies remain below 4% and asking rents rose 0.9% in the first half of 2025, more than double the national average.

• Starting Oct. 1, 2025, House Bill 7031 eliminates Florida’s sales tax on commercial leases, cutting costs for businesses by about $1.3 billion annually. This could further strengthen Florida’s retail competitiveness and attract more tenants.

• Buyers and sellers remain far apart on pricing: sellers hold firm, while buyers push for discounts. Yet most deals close near asking prices, showing strong demand for well-located properties.

Tool of the day - BrikMate

AI solutions for lease analysis and property management in commercial real estate.

20 Ways AI Is Quietly Transforming Real Estate Right Now – link

From smarter pricing models to AI leasing assistants and predictive maintenance, Netguru maps out the biggest ways AI is reshaping the industry in 2025.

Inside ATTOM’s AI Vision: Smarter Data, Faster Deals – link

In a new interview, ATTOM’s Chief Product Officer explains how AI and MCP servers will supercharge property data delivery — giving investors sharper, real-time insights.

AI Is Becoming a Broker’s New Best Friend – link

From automating CMAs to generating marketing content and qualifying leads, AI is helping brokers save time, win clients, and close more deals.

AI Startups Are Disrupting Real Estate with 1–2% Commissions – link

A new crop of AI-driven brokerages is slashing fees and automating workflows — threatening to upend traditional agent models.

The assistant that scales with you

Great leaders don’t run out of ideas. They run out of hours.

Wing gives you a dedicated assistant who plugs into your workflows – calendar, inbox, research, outreach, and ops – so execution never stalls. Wing can:

• Onboard in days, not months

• Run the day-to-day so you don’t have to

• Adapt as your business grows

With Wing, you buy back time without adding headcount. More focus for strategy, more follow-through on priorities, and a lot fewer “forgot to send” moments.

Work smarter with Wing

2025 Housing and Climate Risk Report

This asset type is soaring in retail sales and traffic.

These Markets Are Setting the Pace for Multifamily Growth in 2025

Apartment supply nosedives, only these 10 U.S. markets buck the trend

These Industrial Markets Show Wide Swings in Prices, Rents

Proptech Startups That Just Got Funded

Charted: Median U.S. Salaries by Age Group

Bachelor pad for retirement!?

Link to the listing

That's all folks. If these emails aren't for you anymore, you can unsubscribe here.

Cheers,

Vidit

Instagram

P.S - Read past newsletters here