What History Shows About Housing Market Recovery

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Retailers Focus on Mission-Based Shopping as Landscape Shifts link

• Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have seen overall visits jump 36.6%–45.9% since 2019, fueled by aggressive store expansions. Visits per location held steady at Dollar Tree and grew for Dollar General and Costco—suggesting the new boxes are filling up, not cannibalizing.

• Walmart’s visit share fell from 55.9% in 2019 to below 50%, while Dollar General overtook Target in H1 2025 (Target previously had 15.9%). Value orientation and “mission-specific” trips are pulling traffic from legacy giants without fully replacing them.

• Cross-shopping is rising: Walmart is the top secondary stop for visitors of every chain, and nearly half of Walmart shoppers return 3+ times per month. Loyalty is shifting at the margins—fresh produce boosts Dollar General, while drive-up and same-day lift Target.

Class A rents keep outpacing B and C—how long can it last? link

• Class A apartments posted 2.3% year-over-year rent growth in Q2 2025, beating Class B at 0.8% and Class C, which fell 1.1%. Class B rents are now rising slower than the U.S. average.

• Historically, Class A outperformed post-GFC for four years, then Class B led for seven years until 2021. Current patterns suggest another cyclical shift could be forming.

• Diminishing Treasury yields and stabilizing Class B fundamentals may push future performance back toward a mid-2010s setup, where Class B slowly regains ground against A.

Rising Operating Costs Put New Pressure on Multifamily Performance link

• Operating expenses are now the swing factor: some metros show ~7% annual growth vs. 3%–5% underwriting norms, with insurance jumping 11.77% a year. These increases are tied to climate risk and are outpacing headline inflation.

• The margin is razor-thin: revenue grew 4.96% CAGR (2015–2024) while expenses rose 4.15%, leaving little cushion; NOI rose 5.58%. Small cost bumps or softer rents can quickly hit loan performance.

• Hot-spot pressure + tighter credit: fastest expense growth metros include Buffalo (6.94%), Riverside (6.84%), Tampa (6.14%), Raleigh (6.05%), and Orlando (6.03%). Lenders reacted—2023 debt yields peaked at 18.23% and LTVs fell below 60%.

History Shows the Housing Market Always Recovers link

• Homeowners are pulling listings fast—Realtor.com data shows delistings are up 38% since January and 48% year-over-year. For every 100 new listings in June, about 21 homes were taken off the market.

• Past downturns show the cycle repeats: after 18% mortgage rates in the 1980s, the 2008 crash, and the 2020 COVID freeze, sales all bounced back once rates or conditions eased.

• Experts project about 4.6 million home sales in 2026, up from ~4 million in 2024–2025, with falling mortgage rates expected to pull buyers back into the market.

Uncertainty in Job Market Keeps Would-Be Homebuyers on the Sidelines link

• One-third of U.S. workers fear job loss, with 35% already delaying major purchases like homes; even among households making $100,000+, 35% put plans on hold.

• Nearly half of renters (49%) are holding back from big buys compared to only 27% of homeowners, showing renters are far more exposed to job insecurity.

• 36% of workers lack an emergency fund to cover rent or mortgage, and a third of those with savings say it would last less than three months.

Canadian Snowbirds Dumping U.S. Homes—Florida, Arizona Could Take the Biggest Hit link

• 54% of Canadian property owners with U.S. homes say they plan to sell within the next year, with 35% citing the current U.S. political administration as their main reason. Extreme weather risks and rising costs are smaller but growing concerns.

• Canadians add billions to local economies—$2.5B in Florida and $1.4B in Arizona alone—by living in the communities they buy in. A pullback could leave noticeable gaps in spending, jobs, and neighborhood stability.

• Currency pressure is making U.S. homeownership more expensive: the Canadian dollar is stuck near 70 cents USD, while higher HOA fees and skyrocketing insurance costs are pushing some sellers to offload properties.

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Quick AI Wins: How Landlords Are Tracking Tenant Health with Yutori Scouts – link

Yutori’s AI “Scouts” monitor tenant and portfolio health in real time — giving landlords early warnings on rent risk, occupancy shifts, and market stress.

Financial Giants Rethink Real Estate Talent as AI Takes Over Tasks – link

Major firms are shifting hiring priorities — valuing data and tech expertise over traditional dealmaking skills — as AI reshapes how real estate work gets done.

BlackRock Says AI Is Reshaping How (and Where) to Invest in Real Estate – link

The asset manager sees AI driving new opportunities in data centers, logistics, and smart buildings — while warning that investors must adapt fast or fall behind.

AI-Powered Real Estate Teams Up with SuperWorld and ASI for Virtual Expansion – link

The partnership blends AI, AR, and blockchain to create immersive property experiences — pointing to a future where real estate lives in both physical and virtual worlds.

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Vidit

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